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UPS faces volume decline and earnings cut amid tariff and weather challenges

United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to see an 8% decline in domestic volumes for Q1 2025, driven by tariff uncertainties and severe winter weather, according to Bank of America Securities. The firm has cut its EPS estimate by 15% to $1.31 and reduced the full-year forecast by 6% to $7.40, while reaffirming a Buy recommendation based on long-term structural expense reduction potential. Despite a strong January, internal data suggests a decline in volumes for February and March, with international adjusted operating income projected at $643 million, down from $733 million.

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